Italy and Greece – it’s not fiscal

Mark Crosby makes a very good point and makes it well.

Italy and Greece – it’s not fiscal:

In Europe there are two responses to these developments. Globalisation can either be rejected or be embraced. Policies such as making it hard to shut down businesses support anti-globalisation, since globalisation is going to require firms and people to be adaptable and nimble. It is unfortunate that this might mean that the historical jewelry businesses in Italy have a future far less grand than the past. However, it is simply a fact that there is really no way to avoid this. Italians (and Greeks and others) must become more nimble and adaptable.  Embracing globalisation means accepting that the future will be very different to the present and the past. It requires workers to be well educated, flexible, and talented. This is the real challenge for Greece and Italy.

(Via Core Economics)

The US News College Rankings Scam

Henry on Crooked Timber (I just had to repost the whole thing):

The US News College Rankings Scam:

 

Stephen Budiansky, via Cosma Shalizi’s Pinboard feed.

Back in ancient times when I worked at esteemed weekly newsmagazine U.S. News & World Report, I always loathed the annual college rankings report. Like all cash cows, however, the college guide was a sacred cow, so I just shut up about its obvious statistical absurdities and inherent mendacity. As a lesson in the evils of our times, it is perhaps inevitable that the college guide is now the only thing left of U.S. News.

A story in today’s New York Times reports that Claremont McKenna college has now been caught red handed submitting phony data to the college guide to boost its rankings. But the real scandal, as usual, is not the occasional flagrant instance of outright dishonesty but the routine corruption that is shot through the whole thing. … To increase selectivity (one of the statistics that go into U.S. News’s secret mumbo-jumbo formula to produce an overall ranking), many colleges deliberately encourage applications from students who don’t have a prayer of getting in. To increase average SAT scores, colleges offer huge scholarships to un-needy but high scoring applicants to lure them to attend their institution. (The Times story mentioned that other colleges have been offering payments to admitted students to retake the test to increase the school average.)

… One of my favorite bits of absurdity was what a friend on the faculty at Case Law School told me they were doing a few years ago: because one of the U.S. News data points was the percentage of graduates employed in their field, the law school simply hired any recent graduate who could not get a job at a law firm and put him to work in the library. Their other tactic was pure genius: the law school hired as adjunct professors local alumni who already had lucrative careers (thereby increasing the faculty-student ratio, a key U.S. News statistic used in determining ranking), paid them exorbitant salaries they did not need (thereby increasing average faculty salary, another U.S. News data point), then made it understood that since they did not really need all that money they were expected to donate it all back to the school (thereby increasing the alumni giving rate, another U.S. News data point): three birds with one stone! (I gather the new Case law dean has put an end to these shenanigans.)

Worth reading the whole thing (even though Budiansky’s site has one of those annoying and anti-social ‘if you cut and paste text from my site, you will get unasked for cruft about how you ought to click on the original link added to your pasted text’ installations).

 

(Via Crooked Timber)

Open science: why is it so hard?

OK, I am becoming obsessed with Lemire’s blog. One more post from there now, and back to my own work I go. Incidentally, the book by Michael Nielsen discussed below is sitting in my queue of e-books I really should be reading yesterday. (Once again, I have snipped most of the text of the post, for which I strongly recommend that you visit the source.) And before I go, let me obey Lemire’s injunction and repeat: scholarship is not a publishing business.

Open science: why is it so hard?:

 

[Snip…]

Thus, a much more significant vision is Nielsen’s open science. Michael Nielsen is arguing for a culture shift in science: from a science obsessed with individual performance (and publications) to a science culture resembling more that of open source software or wikipedia.

I fear however that despite all the (well deserved) press that Michael Nielsen’s latest book has been getting, too few people understand the importance of this shift. It is not about becoming hippies. It is not a socialist utopia. On the contrary, the system we have right now is akin to an highly regulated industry. All power is in the hands of the government and a few large organizations (universities, publishers) working in tandem. The barrier to entry is maintained artificially high. Open science is really about creating “open markets” with freer exchanges. It has the potential to boost our collective productivity by orders of magnitude through the removal of unneeded friction.

[Snip…]

And we finally get a hint at why it is so hard it is to open up science: the business of science has become intertwined with businesses like the publishing business. ACM has to speak both as an association of computing professionals, and as a publishing house.

What should be a critical support service, the publication of results, ends up driving much of our culture. The journals become the science. The medium becomes the message.

In effect, we have too much organizational scarring tissue in science. It could be that we need to reboot the system. As a starting point, we should collectively recognize the problem. Repeat after me: scholarship is not a publishing business.

Further reading:

Update:

The ACM charges the authors of any conference for the publication of proceedings. However, they do not require payment for publishing in their journals: instead they request page charges.

How to revise research papers after receiving harsh reviews

I just learned of Daniel Lemire’s blog from a post by Noam Nisan on Google+. The following post from Lemire’s blog is so good I had to fight the temptation to quote its entirety here. I heartily recommend it, and the whole blog, to you, gentle reader. Do not waste time; go visit it now.

How to revise research papers after receiving harsh reviews:

Whether you submit your work scientific journal or just post it on a blog, you can expect to receive harsh criticism from time to time. Sometimes you are facing arrogant or ignorant readers. Other times, your work is genuinely flawed. My own work is frequently flawed, as you know if you read this blog.

Over time, I have learned that even if the reviewer is wrong, spending time to careful respond can be tremendously useful. If you are 100% correct, then you get to build up your confidence and can later answer similar criticism hastily. Very often, however, you did not do everything perfectly. Maybe your arguments and data are correct, but you might have presented them better.

There are specific strategies to deal with harsh reviews:

(Snipped. Excellent practical advice is here, but I really think you should go read the original post!)

(Via Daniel Lemire’s blog)

Playing “taboo” with jargon

Eliezer Yudkovsky has an excellent suggestion in this blog post. The idea is that clarity in scientific or philosophical discussions would be enhanced if participants were not allowed to use certain terms. For economists, for instance, this could include terms such as “welfare” or “efficiency”. Instead of “welfare”, you would have to use the operational definition of welfare you have in mind, and so on. I endorse this suggestion heartily, mindful that it would make defenders of elegance in verbal expression cringe. Most often, what intended-to-be-taken-seriously speech lacks is a manic devotion to exactitude.

ADDENDUM: hat tip to Ole Rogeberg on Google+.

John Quiggin makes an excellent point

I don’t often discuss macroeconomics here but this blog post by John Quiggin is well worth my attention and yours. He totally demolishes a review of his book by Steven Williamson, who is quoted as saying “Market efficiency is simply an assumption of rationality. As such it has no implications. If it has no implications, it can’t be wrong.” Williamson is also quoted as saying “Like the “efficient markets hypothesis,” DSGE has no implications, and therefore can’t be wrong.”

If you wonder why I have not gone over to my university’s online library site to read the review, it’s because I am utterly disgusted by the Williamson quotations and do not want to waste my time reading his review. Macroeconomics is supposed to be a science, not a part of analytic philosophy or logic; “economists” with such enormous blindfolds as Williamson have too much sway in the discipline and have corrupted its very core.

Like Tjalling Koopmans said in response to Milton Friedman’s methodological emanations, every assumption you make in building a theory is automatically, and rather obviously, also a prediction of the theory. Saying “I like the assumption of rationality, I will always make it, and it’s my mode so you can’t tell me not to play with it to my heart’s content” is odious nonsense. When the efficient market hypothesis or DSGE is part of a model that produces predictions that keep being smacked by the data, insisting that these assumptions (and since when is DSGE an assumption, rather than a whole modeling technique?) can’t be wrong is tantamount to saying that your theory can’t be useful and in fact is eminently ignorable. If you peddle it to the world and your students as science, you are at the minimum corrupting the notion of science itself.

Object-oriented thinking in economics

I have been meddling with the programming language Python for some years now in order to become self-sufficient in programming simulations. In doing so, I learned the basics of object-oriented computer programming (OOP for short).

OOP is a style of writing computer programs, with some languages, such as Java, heavily supporting it (Java enforces it, in fact) and other languages, such as Python, supporting it strongly. Coming to OOP from economics was conceptually easy. Now I am thinking that OOP has something to tell us regarding how we teach economics or how we present it to the wider world. This post is my first written rumination on this topic.

First, let me define an object in the OOP sense. I need to give you some background first. I expect you are aware, even if you never wrote any computer code, that such code is a string of data, ultimately encoded in binary notation, that tells the computer to do certain things with part of this data. To take a simple example, if you want the computer to choose randomly between the names of participants in a lottery, you have to include the names in your program (data) and write commands that result in one of these names being chosen randomly and this choice being communicated to the user. This little program has data (it “knows” some things) and it has ways of acting on these data (it “knows” what to do with the things it knows).

In any reasonably complicated programming problem, it helps us as programmers to compartmentalize the code. We make a chunk of code to perform task A, another to perform task B, and so on, and finally we write code to coordinate these chunks as they go along merrily doing their thing. Each one of these code chunks has some data it knows and some things it can do with the data it knows. (Computer scientists, I know I am simplifying. I only want to convey the basics of OOP here.) An object in OOP language is a chunk of code that has some data and some things it can do (usually called “methods”, but you can think of them as commands specific to this chunk). The programming language in which you are specifying these objects provides ways for objects to communicate with each other, passing data around, and to ask each other to perform one of its methods (execute one of the commands it has).

How is this relevant to economics? You are probably already chomping at the bit to answer, but here is my take. When we set up any model in economics, at least if our model is “microfounded” as we say, we have some agents who know certain things and do certain things. Suppose, for example, that you want to make a computer model of an exchange economy. You need a number of individuals, each with an endowment and a preference relation over the commodity space. These individuals need to be able to perceive prices, decide which net trades are feasible given a particular price vector, and, finally, they need to be able to propose and execute trades with each other. (OK, maybe you wanted a Walrasian auctioneer thrown in as well? I leave it as an exercise then to determine what data and which methods the auctioneer object in the code will need.)

I cannot think of a mainstream economics model that cannot be conceptualized in these terms. Indeed, computational economics has flourished in the last several years and you can find plenty of examples of what I am talking about by visiting, for example, the amazingly comprehensive website that Leigh Tesfatsion has set up. (This kind of “microfounded” computational economics goes by the name agent-based computational economics.)

So why don’t we teach our students using the concept that each economic agent in our models is an object (in the OOP sense) that interacts with others based on rules set up by the institutional infrastructure of the economy and physical feasibility conditions?

I can think of two answers right now, one deeper than the other. I will examine each one and argue that they do not convince me, starting with the shallower one.

The shallow answer is that our students will find it hard to understand the OOP language of objects and their interactions. I am much more likely to agree that our students in introductory courses will not understand supply and demand graphs or the simple linear equations we try to use to overcome their math anxieties. But almost all students in introductory courses will have played computer games. For them, all you have to do to introduce OOP objects is to refer to an avatar in an online role-playing game or a tile in Tetris. Stepping from these examples to explaining economic objects in code does not in fact impose the need for a computer language at all. You can use pseudo-code and the ideas stand; any time your students feel shaky, just bring in another computer-game inspired example.

The deeper answer is that while encapsulating an individual in an exchange economy in the language of OOP objects is easy, if we start thinking in the algorithmic terms this mental shift suggests, things like arriving at a Walrasian equilibrium become hard problems. There might even be a student in your class who knows enough computer science and will tell you to your face that our cavalier approach of taking shortcuts like calculating an equilibrium with Lagrange multiplier techniques and setting supply equal to demand is a rotten approach, as it hides the remarkably difficult problem of arriving at an equilibrium.

So how can I deal with this answer? My point is that we should adopt the OOP viewpoint precisely so as to force our students or readers to confront the fact that reaching an equilibrium in an economic model is much trickier a proposition than the typical paper in Econometrica or JET lets on. As economists, we have internalized the mental shortcuts that make us jump to equilibria in fairly complicated models and then analyze the properties of these equilibria. But there is much to be learned by confronting the need to specify exactly how economic agents interact in time, each with its own data an abilities to perform actions such as buying and selling, manage to get to an equilibrium (if they do). Do we really want a Walrasian auctioneer who gropes around in price space to find an equilibrium? What if the economy happens not to have a stable equilibrium (the question can arise whether we are looking at a market model or any other kind of agent-based model). These are not idle concerns; they show clearly some of the limitations of economic theorizing and to ignore them is intellectual arrogance at best, dishonesty at worst.

There is one final point in my mind about this, which I will leave to be developed in a future post. Thinking in terms of institutional infrastructure can be considered the overall code of our economic computer program. This can encompass the ways information gets passed around from agent to agent as the economy operates as well as the outcome function that determines what allocations occur and when as the agents take various actions. The more precise we are in specifying these the better, just as much as the more careful we are to specify computable ways to reach an equilibrium (see the previous paragraph) the better. As this post already exceeds 1250 words, however, this final point will have to be explored later.